Decisions drivethe future
I write about making them.
Why dying is often hard, but sometimes easy
7 minUntil the God speaks - Protean Uncertainty
5 minEvery success has siblings and often you only meet one
9 minThe Room with the Revolver and other Non-Ergodic Systems
6 minThe Geometry of Luck
9 minHow high is your Opportunity Quotient?
10 minMaximal Reproducible Return
5 minFailure Modes of Decision Making
9 minWhat is a good decision?
3 minThe Math of making the most optimal decision
10 minWhy We Actually Crave Uncertainty
4 minWorking Hard Is Not Enough
8 min
Hey, I'm Julius
At nineteen doctors told me an internal bleeding could kill me, only a couple of months later I nearly died. I was gripped by the question:
How to make decisions
under uncertainty?
Almost ten years later I still think about that a lot. The urgency is gone, but the curiosity stayed, now playing with it in the context of investing and philosophy. I first wrote about it in my thesis, now exploring it in the form of essays my past self would have craved to read.
More about me →
Why it matters…The future is invisible
But…The present demands decisions.
Propose or stop wasting their time?
Yet…Some decisions perform inthe face of uncertainty.
Pillars of my thinking
Non-ergodicity
A thousand people playing Russian roulette once is not the same as one person playing a thousand times. The crowd survives ruin. You do not.
Protean uncertainty
The problem reshapes itself in response to every move you make against it. There is no solving it.
Bimodal strategies
One position built for absorbing shocks, the other for capturing uncapped upside. Not playing the middle ground.