ESSAYS
A few ideas you might want to catch -
they tend to change how the future unfolds.
- Aug 2026
How high is your Opportunity Quotient?
On seeing the options that were there all along.
10 min - Aug 2026
Maximal Reproducible Return
A brilliant Tuesday bought with Wednesday and Thursday.
5 min - Jul 2026
Failure Modes of Decision Making
And why error detection is the most important thing.
9 min - Jul 2026
What is a good decision?
And what apples and yardsticks have to do with it?
3 min - Jun 2026
The Math of making the most optimal decision
When does "I could do better" have to surrender to "This is as good as it gets"?
10 min - Jun 2026
Why We Actually Crave Uncertainty
Why we love Uncertainty or at least some type of it.
4 min - May 2026
Working Hard Is Not Enough
Effort is a lever, but a small one compared to the underlying generator.
8 min - Apr 2026
The Geometry of Luck
On path-dependent outcomes, luck surface area and the conversion of randomness into result.
9 min - Apr 2026
The Room with the Revolver and other Non-Ergodic Systems
On ergodicity, time averages and the lie hiding inside expected value.
6 min - Mar 2026
Until the God speaks - Protean Uncertainty
Why the future does not just hide from us.
5 min - Mar 2026
Every success has siblings and often you only meet one
An introduction to Distributional Thinking
9 min - Feb 2026
Why dying is often hard, but sometimes easy
On decision-making under unknown time horizons.
7 min
