CONCEPTS
The terms I have coined and keep building on, the working vocabulary of Vectors of Reality.
- 01
Protean Uncertainty
The problem reshapes itself in response to your move against it.
Most uncertainty is hidden information you could uncover if you looked hard enough. This is not that. The target reforms every time you act on it, so the very move you make against it changes its shape. Any edge you find gets answered. There is no solving it once and for all, only staying adaptive enough to keep pace.
Why the future fights back → - 02
Alean Thinking
You can know the odds. You never know which one you'll live.
Where the outcome is a real throw, no amount of forecasting tells you which face you will get. So you move your effort off predicting the result and onto your position, what you are holding when it lands. You cannot change the odds of the throw, only what each face pays you. From the Latin alea, the die.
Position over prediction → - 03
The Strategy Horizon Problem
The horizon you assume shapes your strategy. Your strategy shapes the horizon you get.
Every decision is quietly tuned to a time horizon you had to assume. You can estimate the odds on that horizon, never the number you actually get. Worse, the assumption feeds back, because the strategy you choose from it can shorten or extend the horizon you end up living. So optimizing hard for one guess is fragile. A wrong guess does not just underperform, it can cut the horizon to zero.
The two-horizon problem →